Leiter Reports: A Philosophy Blog

Ten more commandments found!

This is pretty funny.

Jail time for Jared?

One can hope so after these revelations, assuming they are confirmed in subsequent legal proceedings.  This version cuts to the chase.

COVID and higher education...

...with a particular focus on Boston University, from philosopher Daniel Star at BU.  BU has not been covering itself in glory with its approach to faculty and graduate students during the crisis.

Things "we" now know that we didn't know about COVID a few months ago

I first started posting about COVID in February, and created a separate "coronavirus" category in early March.  Reviewing these posts, here are a few things that lept out at me:

1.  When the CDC said wearing masks wasn't needed, that was false:  it would have made a difference then, as it does now.  It defies belief that there are some states in this benighted country not requiring that masks be worn in public places that are indoors.

2.  The anxiety about ventilator supply in the U.S. was mostly misplaced.   There was stress in New York City in particular, due to the massive surge in cases, but even there I gather they met the demand.  More importantly, we discovered that avoiding ventilators in favor of high-flow oxygen canulas and masks led to better outcomes for patients.

3.   The question of heat and the novel coronavirus looks to have been settled:  heat doesn't have much or any effect, as the surging cases in Arizona, Florida, Texas, and Southern California, among other places, attest.

4.   People rarely get COVID from contaminated surfaces or from passing someone outdoors who has it (are there any confirmed cases of such transmission?).  The primary transmission occurs indoors with prolonged exposure (10-15 minutes or more).   The worse the ventilation, the more likely transmission is, and the more people are talking, singing, sneezing, or coughing, the more likely transmission is.

It's stunning, though, what we still don't know.  We don't know why some people get very sick, while others have no symptoms or mild illness, even when controlling for known variables like age, pre-existing conditions, obesity, and the like.  We also don't know why this virus ends up doing damage to so many different organs. 

Feel free to offer links to correct any of the preceding claims.

Another COVID Dr. Doom, Israel's Anthony Fauci (as it were)

Like the earlier one, he may be right (he's focused, naturally, on Israel, but one can extrapolate to other places).  Short version:  if you're under 50, you should be fine; if you're over 70, you're in trouble; between 50-70, mixed prospects.

Modelling COVID spread on campus

This is sobering.

More evidence for the "war crimes" trials for the failed U.S. war on COVID

Here; an excerpt:

Had American leaders taken the decisive, early measures that several other nations took when they had exactly the same information the U.S. did, at exactly the same time in their experience of the novel coronavirus, how many of these Covid-19 deaths could have been prevented?

That isn’t a hypothetical question. And the answer that emerges from a direct comparison of the fatalities in and policies of the U.S. and other countries — South Korea, Australia, Germany, and Singapore — indicates that between 70% and 99% of the Americans who died from this pandemic might have been saved by measures demonstrated by others to have been feasible.

Certainly if there had been adequate testing available, the incidence of asymptomtic staff infecting residents in nursing homes and assisted living facilities would have been far less frequent.

The obstacles to ethical vaccine challenge studies

Bioethicist Carl Elliott (Minnesota) comments.

(Thanks to Mark Pavlick for the pointer.)

COVID-19 planning for higher education

A detailed set of recommendations from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

Can U.S. faculty be forced to come back to campus in the fall?

This is useful, from a law professor.  The short answer seems to be: yes, unless you have a claim for accomodation (i.e., being permitted to work remotely) under the Americans with Disabilities Act:

For those who have not previously requested accommodations, they first must prove they are eligible. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission has suggested that if employees have conditions that make them more susceptible to Covid-19, employers should take steps to eliminate the direct threat posed by Covid-19.

Faculty members who seek accommodations under the ADA must show that that they will be able to perform the essential functions of their job at home. When most colleges thrust faculty members into online teaching in March and continued to pay them, the colleges essentially agreed that faculty members are able to perform the essential functions of their jobs from home, at least during this pandemic. Colleges would be hard pressed to now argue that working from home is not a reasonable accommodation. Moreover, they have resisted tuition refunds for students this spring on the grounds that online education is not inferior to in-person classes....

And now some thoughts from Dr. Doom...

...but he's a serious and informed virologist.  Let's hope he's too pessimistic, but that's only a hope.

Cheap and widely available steroid drug cuts mortality in patients seriously ill with COVID

A welcome bit of news:

For patients on ventilators, it cut the risk of death from 40% to 28%. For patients needing oxygen, it cut the risk of death from 25% to 20%.

Chief investigator Prof Peter Horby said: "This is the only drug so far that has been shown to reduce mortality - and it reduces it significantly. It's a major breakthrough."

Young children do not appear to be transmitting the new coronavirus to adults

From a recent news story:

[T]here has not been a single [documented] case of a child under 10 transmitting COVID-19, even through contact tracing carried out by the World Health Organisation (WHO).

Let's hope this doesn't just reflect a gap in the evidence!

UPDATE:  See the first comment below, the news account, above, is not quite accurate.

COVID reproduction number, by state

This is a useful resource.

The risks of COVID transmission from indoor teaching

A useful thread of sources and evidence (some noted here in the past) compiled by philosopher Michael Otsuka (LSE).

More on Sweden's failed COVID strategy: a mea culpa from the architect

Here; as the article notes:

At 43 deaths per 100,000, Sweden’s mortality rate is among the highest globally and far exceeds that of neighboring Denmark and Norway, which imposed much tougher lockdowns at the onset of the pandemic.

Legal issues facing colleges planning on reopening this fall--plus the difference social distancing can make

This is useful and the opinions quoted sensible; this is really the most important bit:

"Institutions will have a number of strong defenses available, including, among others, that their adherence to CDC and other guidance demonstrates that they have met the applicable standard of care and that, given the nature of the virus, it will be very difficult … to demonstrate what caused a particular individual to contract the virus," Warner said. "Institutions will also be informing their students and employees of the risks inherent in returning to campus given the very nature of the virus."

Any institution in  compliance with federal and state health guidelines will be in good shape legally, regardless of how much illness there is on campus.

Small Belgian study of 154 elderly patients finds benefits from use of statins...

...and possible benefits from use of blood pressure meds (ARBs and ACEIs).  Particularly striking (but too small a sample to inspire confidence) was that 6 of the 8 elderly patients taking both statins and blood pressure medications were asymptomatic despite testing positive for COVID (and only 1 of the 8 got seriously ill)--much lower than the rate of asymptomatic patients generally.

Incompetent COVID reporting, NY Times edition

This from yesterday:

In the weeks since America began reopening on a large scale, the coronavirus has persisted on a stubborn but uneven path, with meaningful progress in some cities and alarming new outbreaks in others.

A snapshot of the country on a single day last week revealed sharply divergent realities. As the United States marked the tragic milestone of 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus on Wednesday, the contrasting picture was unmistakable — a murky, jumbled outlook depending on one’s location.

Around Chicago, Wednesday was one of the most lethal days of the pandemic, with more than 100 deaths....In the Boston area, where an alarming crisis of a month ago has given way to cautious optimism, businesses were reopening that day and new cases numbered in the dozens, no longer the hundreds.

COVID peaked in Chicago three-four weeks ago, so of course deaths are still occurring.  In fact, yesterday saw the lowest number of new cases reported since early April (and last week saw about 3,000 new cases the entire week, less than half the number three weeks ago).  No doubt there are places where the pandemic is gaining steam, rather than losing it, but the example chosen is in fact irrelevant.

Public health measures and "freedom"

Les Green (Oxford & Queen's U) comments (amusingly and aptly); an excerpt:

Admittedly, there are disagreements about freedom.  Some philosophers say these turn on people having different ‘concepts’ of freedom; others say that we have various ‘conceptions of the concept’ of freedom. (It can only be a matter of time before someone says that we have different ‘concepts of a conception of a concept’ of freedom.)  My own view is parsimonious.  I think we are free to do what we can actually do, and not free to do what we cannot do because we are prevented from doing it or because the action has been made infeasible.  What we disagree about is why freedom and unfreedom matter.

Some people hate restrictions just because they hate anyone making them do things they don’t want to do. (Teenagers, and some libertarians, tend to fall into this class.)  For others, unfreedom is of concern only if it also limits their autonomy, the power to shape their lives to fit their needs and character, as JS Mill put it.  Being forced to wear a mask while shopping may outrage the first group, but not the second because (save in special cases) wearing a mask does not limit any further activities.  A third group have still narrower concerns.  They only chafe under unfreedoms they judge to be imposed arbitrarily or unreasonably, in which cases they think they are being ‘dominated’.  These are all real disagreements, but they are fundamentally disagreements about the value of particular freedoms, not about freedom’s nature.

More antibody testing results: 3% of people in Indiana have been exposed to the new coronavirus...

...and 45% had no symptoms from it.  As the article notes based on Indiana and other antibody studies, the infection fatality rate seems to be between .5 and 1%, which is still pretty awful, but not as awful as some of the very early figures tossed around.

How Vietnam avoided a COVID catastrophe

Pretty remarkable, given the size of the country and the proximity (and ties) to China.  Nothing like competent political leadership during a catastrophe.

More on the need for ventilation in indoor spaces--social distancing is not enough

A Dutch study, summarized here.

‘After a single cough, it takes about five minutes for the number of small droplets in the air to be halved,’ the researchers said. These tiny droplets are therefore much more dangerous when it comes to possible transmission of coronavirus. When the same experiments were repeated in a well-ventilated room, the results improved dramatically. With only mechanical ventilation turned on, half of the droplets disappeared within 2.5 minutes, but in a room that also had a door and window open, the number of droplets was halved after 30 seconds – ten times faster than in the unventilated room.

Read more at DutchNews.nl:

‘After a single cough, it takes about five minutes for the number of small droplets in the air to be halved,’ the researchers said. These tiny droplets are therefore much more dangerous when it comes to possible transmission of coronavirus. When the same experiments were repeated in a well-ventilated room, the results improved dramatically. With only mechanical ventilation turned on, half of the droplets disappeared within 2.5 minutes, but in a room that also had a door and window open, the number of droplets was halved after 30 seconds – ten times faster than in the unventilated room.

Read more at DutchNews.nl:

Sweden has highest rate of COVID-related deaths per capita in the world...

...according to this source, although one suspects Brazil, which is close, may not be testing or keeping track as thoroughly as Sweden.

Princeton Sociology Department will not accept PhD applicants in 2020-21

MOVING TO FRONT FROM YESTERDAY--SEE THIRD COMMENT WHICH  EXPLAINS WHAT PRINCETON IS DOING

Now this is a striking decision, not only because this is a top sociology PhD program, but because Princeton is far and away the richest university in the United States.  Have other PhD programs in philosophy or other fields announced that they are suspending admissions for a year?

Texas is opening up, so the Dallas Morning News asked some experts what activities would be safe

The answer is very little that is indoors, a bit more that is outdoors.

Wisconsin Supreme Court struck down Governor's stay-at-home order on May 14...

...when the 7-day-average of new cases per day was about 300 for the state; 12 days later, it's now well over 400 new cases per day.   Correlation or causation?  I'll bet money on the latter.

UPDATE:   Today, May 28, Wisconsin recorded its second highest case total ever (the highest was less than a week ago).

Class action law firm filing suits around the U.S. against universities seeking tuition refunds

While many schools refunded prorated room and board, I'm not aware of any who have refunded tuition, but that's exactly what a growing number of lawsuits are seeking.  This will add to the serious financial woes of U.S. universities, especially if the plaintiffs are successful and online teaching continues into the coming academic year.

Coronavirus in Chicago (and Illinois): a timeline

MOVING TO FRONT, ORIGINALLY POSTED MARCH 14--VARIOUS UPDATES, MOSTLY FOR CHICAGO/ILLINOIS, FEWER NOW FOR NEW YORK CITY

Just a snapshot of what's going on in one metropolis, that hasn't (yet!) been hit as bad as NYC or Seattle or parts of Northern California; I'll update this periodically.  Illinois is doing a fair bit of testing, but not nearly enough.  Technically these are the numbers for Illinois, but almost all the cases are in the Chicago metropolitan area (9.5 million people are in the Chicago metro area, Illinois has 12.5 million altogether, Cook County, where Chicago is, has 5.2 million people; the data is broken out starting March 18):

States reopening but lying about their case counts and deaths?

Doubts about Georgia and Florida in this article.  State officials fudging on data this important should be fired or, better yet, jailed.

Impact of the pandemic on universities in the UK

This is a pretty sobering assessment; some excerpts:

Manchester University published what it considered its worst-case scenario about what might happen next year: 80 per cent of students from outside the EU and 20 per cent of UK and EU students could  defer or drop out. On that basis, they estimate, the university stands to lose £270m in a single year.

If you work through that scenario, it means the UK universities would be down by £6.7bn from tuition fees alone. Last year, excluding one-off pension costs, most institutions ran a narrow financial surplus. They made about 3.5 per cent more than they spent. Under the nightmare scenario, the lost fees would drive the average university to a 16 percentage point deficit.

Assume, too, that universities might lose two terms of housing, catering and conference income. Social distancing is cancelling events, preventing full occupancy of buildings – and has already cost them one term of rent. That would add another £1.5bn to the losses, and the average deficit could drift out to 20 per cent. Even if that were a one-off hit, and institutions could be sure that the good times were coming back, it would mean a lot of debt for the sector to carry. For some institutions, it would mean the end....

The hardest hit institutions in our scenario in absolute terms include a lot of very famous institutions: UCL would lose £115m in fees. Manchester, King’s, Edinburgh, Leeds and Warwick more than £60m....

New CDC estimates on COVID

35% of cases are asymptomatic (but still infectious), while the fatality rate for those with symptoms is .4% (so four times worse than the standard estimate for flu mortality); from a CNN article:

The fifth scenario is the CDC's "current best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States." In that scenario, the agency described its estimate that 0.4% of people who feel sick with Covid-19 will die.

For people age 65 and older, the CDC puts that number at 1.3%. For people 49 and under, the agency estimated that 0.05% of symptomatic people will die.

The article goes on to note one expert's skepticism about the fatality numbers as being too optimistic.

Developing herd immunity: an interactive tool

The title of this piece is misleading--depending on variables like how long immunity lasts and how many others each infected person infects, herd immunity may be possible--but what's useful here is the tool that allows you to adjust he variables to see how that affects herd immunity, and how many would die in the process.

(Thanks to Jerry Dworkin for the pointer.)

Penn's tentative plans for next academic year

Realistic and instructive, probably a useful model for urban campuses; some excerpts:

In light of the challenges before us, we want to share four major scenarios currently under consideration. Some of these could be productively combined.  The four scenarios are:

A hybrid experience with some in-person instruction. In a mostly online learning environment, classroom instruction would be offered for small seminars, research group meetings, experiential clinics, studios, and other courses enrolling no more than 25 students. These classes could be offered in lecture halls and other large venues that accommodate physical distancing and facial coverings and could even include newly installed Plexiglas barriers for separating lecturers from the audience. All larger classes of more than 25 students would be delivered online, even for those living on campus.

An in-person experience ending at Thanksgiving break. In this scenario—compatible with the hybrid experience described above—the fall semester would begin and end on schedule, but all on-campus activities would conclude as Penn breaks for Thanksgiving. After Thanksgiving, the remainder of the fall semester would be conducted online. In some cases, in order to ensure the required hours of instruction, some classes might schedule additional meetings in the early evening and/or on Saturdays.

More robust summer course offerings in 2021. To maintain flexibility for our students, we could offer expanded class options, in addition to our current strong summer programming, during the summer of 2021, providing greater opportunities for earned academic credits and cohort-based experiential learning. This scenario is also compatible with the first two scenarios above and would enable us to accommodate an even wider range of educational needs and preferences.

An entirely online experience for the fall semester. In the event that the pandemic precludes us from bringing students back to campus in the fall, we would then conduct all fall semester instruction, mentoring, and advising at a safe distance via technology. In this scenario, we would make every effort to bring students back to campus as soon as possible and to preserve class traditions, including for our entering Class of 2024. This scenario is distinct from the first two scenarios above but compatible with the third....

Anthony Fauci on colleges reopening

Cautious, but sensible; here is his take on how to reopen in the fall:

I don’t think it’s going to be one size fits all. I think it’s going to depend on the location of where the particular university or place of higher education is, what the demography of the students is, where they’re coming from. All of these things have to be taken into account.

A number of presidents of universities have been in discussions with us at the task force, with the vice president and with others, talking about creative ways where they could continue the education and yet safeguard the safety and the health of the students. There are a variety of models.

One of the models has been to essentially test all the students before they come in, just so that you know what the baseline of infection is. Test them both to see if they’re actually infected with tests for the virus, as well as — depending upon the technology at the time — antibodies to see if they had been previously exposed.

But one of the things that I have heard — and I’m not necessarily saying I’m advocating it because I think it’ll be appropriate variably depending on where you are — is to get at least a baseline and intermittently survey the students. By baseline, meaning you know when you start on Day 1 what you’re dealing with and intermittently do random surveillance every couple of weeks or what have you. You have to have the capability when students get infected, which they will, to then get them to a situation where they would be able to be comfortably isolated if in fact they’re just waiting out a relatively mild infection. Or, if they get ill, to have the health care available for them.

As this IHE article confirms, it is likely that there will be more than enough testing available by fall, although the cost may be prohibitive for some schools.

Detailed plans from the University of North Carolina about fall opening

Here; some excerpts from the Chancellor's message:

[W]e will ask you to practice physical distancing, wash your hands often, use hand sanitizer, maintain clean spaces and wear appropriate face coverings/masks (provided by the University for those who need them), among other best practices....

The College of Arts & Sciences, along with our schools and units, are reconfiguring in-person course instruction to include physical distancing provisions. These considerations mean that small classes will meet in larger spaces, and large lecture classes may be split into smaller sections, delivered remotely or consist of a combination of both. Our goal is to offer as much flexibility for students and faculty as possible.

Under guidance from our infectious disease and public health experts, we have revised the academic calendar to begin classes a week earlier and conclude before Thanksgiving. We made the difficult decision to eliminate fall break not only to finish sooner but also to minimize possible virus spread associated with travel....

Sweden's approach to the pandemic hasn't worked very well

An interesting thread, with links, from Yale's Professor Christakis.

After the "war" against COVID-19, we'll also need "war crimes" trials for...

...Governor Cuomo of New York and Mayor DiBlasio of New York City.  See, for example, this and this, but especially this damning ProPublica report contrasting their performance with the performance of San Francisco's Mayor and California's Governor.  Having screwed up the initial response, Governor Cuomo has certainly shown himself to be an adept public communicator, but that doesn't change the fact that people died because they didn't get going soon enough.

Pharmaceutical giant spending $1 billion on vaccine development, aiming for the fall

And Pfizer isn't alone in such efforts.  This is another reason to be hopeful that science and modern medicine may save us from the incompetence of the political leadership in the U.S. and other backwards countries.

Open letter from Fordham graduate students seeking better university support during the pandemic

Like their peers at Villanova, the Fordham students are also in need.

(Thanks to Ricky DeSantis for the pointer.)

Cambridge University announces *lectures* will be on-line next year...

...but that still leaves open the possibility of in-person teaching in small groups and tutorials.

Some skepticism about the initial reports on Moderna's vaccine

A propos this, see this; an excerpt:

The company’s statement led with the fact that all 45 subjects (in this analysis) who received doses of 25 micrograms (two doses each), 100 micrograms (two doses each), or a 250 micrograms (one dose) developed binding antibodies.

Later, the statement indicated that eight volunteers — four each from the 25-microgram and 100-microgram arms — developed neutralizing antibodies. Of the two types, these are the ones you’d really want to see.

We don’t know results from the other 37 trial participants. This doesn’t mean that they didn’t develop neutralizing antibodies. Testing for neutralizing antibodies is more time-consuming than other antibody tests and must be done in a biosecurity level 3 laboratory. Moderna disclosed the findings from eight subjects because that’s all it had at that point. Still, it’s a reason for caution.

Wearing masks at all times when indoors with others has to become the new normal...

...and it makes a difference.  This is going to be especially true at colleges and universities that attempt to reopen this fall.

38% of church attendees in Arkansas got COVID-19

Another indication of the problem of groups in enclosed spaces for extended periods of time:

The two [index] cases occurred in a husband and wife; the husband is the pastor at a local church (church A). The couple (the index cases) attended church-related events during March 6–8, and developed nonspecific respiratory symptoms and fever on March 10 (wife) and 11 (husband). Before his symptoms had developed, the husband attended a Bible study group on March 11. Including the index cases, 35 confirmed COVID-19 cases occurred among 92 (38%) persons who attended events held at church A during March 6–11; three patients died. The age-specific attack rates among persons aged ≤18 years, 19–64 years, and ≥65 years were 6.3%, 59.4%, and 50.0%, respectively....

During March 6–8, church A hosted a 3-day children’s event which consisted of two separate 1.5-hour indoor sessions (one on March 6 and one on March 7) and two, 1-hour indoor sessions during normal church services on March 8. This event was led by two guests from another state. During each session, children participated in competitions to collect offerings by hand from adults, resulting in brief close contact among nearly all children and attending adults. On March 7, food prepared by church members was served buffet-style. A separate Bible study event was held March 11; the pastor reported most attendees sat apart from one another in a large room at this event. Most children and some adults participated in singing during the children’s event; no singing occurred during the March 11 Bible study. Among all 94 persons who might have attended any of the events, 19 (20%) attended both the children’s event and Bible study....

Notre Dame to start two weeks earlier than planned in order to finish by Thanksgiving

Basically every school in the U.S. should be doing this.  As I noted back in early April, it's beyond insane during a pandemic to think of sending thousands of students home for a few days and then bringing them back in December for some more school!  Starting Winter or Spring terms are going to be hard enough; I strongly suspect it will be impossible to start those terms normally, but perhaps things will evolve in such away that at least some of the following term can be live.

(Thanks to Stephen Woodside for the pointer.)

Moderna's COVID vaccine generates appropriate immune response in early testing

Hopeful, but there's quite a way to go:

In a Phase 1 trial, eight patients who received two doses of the vaccine at the lowest and middle doses tested — 25 and 100 micrograms — developed neutralizing antibodies to the virus at levels similar to people who had recovered from infection, the company said in a statement.

The data were limited and from only a small number of participants in the trial, led by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. But they are still likely to be seen as encouraging. Research aimed to develop a vaccine against SARS, a related virus responsible for a 2002-2003 outbreak, showed that neutralizing antibodies are pivotal for achieving protection.

Links to other informed analyses of these results welcome.

Immune response to the new coronavirus suggests a COVID-19 vaccine should work

Report on a new study.

Illinois shut down, Iowa did not...

...and those on the Illinois side of the Illinois/Iowa border fared better as a result.  We are lucky to have had an adult and rational Governor who acted early.

(Thanks to Dr. David Ozonoff for the pointer.)

Marquette adopts new calendar, with fall term ending before Thanksgiving

A good plan (hopefully it will work!).

(Thanks to Gregory Mayer for the pointer.)

COVID-19 is much worse than flu (plus Diamond Princess, redux)

No doubt most readers already know this, but this article makes the point forecefully:

The CDC, like many similar disease control agencies around the world, presents seasonal influenza morbidity and mortality not as raw counts but as calculated estimates based on submitted International Classification of Diseases codes.² Between 2013-2014 and 2018-2019, the reported yearly estimated influenza deaths ranged from 23 000 to 61 000.³ Over that same time period, however, the number of counted influenza deaths was between 3448 and 15 620 yearly.⁴ On average, the CDC estimates of deaths attributed to influenza were nearly 6 times greater than its reported counted numbers. Conversely, COVID-19 fatalities are at present being counted and reported directly, not estimated. As a result, the more valid comparison would be to compare weekly counts of COVID-19 deaths to weekly counts of seasonal influenza deaths.

During the week ending April 21, 2020, 15 455 COVID-19 counted deaths were reported in the US.⁵ The reported number of counted deaths from the previous week, ending April 14, was 14 478. By contrast, according to the CDC, counted deaths during the peak week of the influenza seasons from 2013-2014 to 2019-2020 ranged from 351 (2015-2016, week 11 of 2016) to 1626 (2017-2018, week 3 of 2018).⁶ The mean number of counted deaths during the peak week of influenza seasons from 2013-2020 was 752.4 (95% CI, 558.8-946.1).⁷ These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase (95% CI, 16.3-27.7).^5,6

Also interesting was this tidbit about the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which I had not seen before:

At present, the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak is one of the few situations for which complete data are available. For this outbreak, the case fatality rate as of late April 2020 was 1.8% (13 deaths out of 712 cases); age adjusted to reflect the general population, the figure would have been closer to 0.5%.

The age adjustment is needed because the age of people on cruise ships skews much higher than the population at large.

(Thanks to Dr. David Ozonoff for the pointer.)