Leiter Reports: A Philosophy Blog

Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

MOVING TO Front from June 14

This analysis, unfortunately, seems very compelling.  Do not comment until you have read it in full.  If the author is wrong, I'd be very interested to hear why.

(Thanks to Boris Dagaev for the pointer.)

U.N. chief is worried too

A propos our recent thread, the head of the U.N. is worried too:

UN chief Antonio Guterres warned nations Monday that he fears the likelihood of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict means the world is heading towards a "wider war"....

 

Top of the list [of threats] was Russia's war in Ukraine, which is approaching its one-year anniversary.

 

"The prospects for peace keep diminishing. The chances of further escalation and bloodshed keep growing," he said.

 

"I fear the world is not sleepwalking into a wider war. I fear it is doing so with its eyes wide open."

The latest escalation of the war in Ukraine

MOVING TO FRONT FROM JANUARY 31--A LIVELY, AND GENERALLY QUITE INTERESTING DISCUSSION IN THE COMMENTS, AS BEFORE

Provision of tanks to Ukraine in the West's proxy war against Russia is another dangerous escalation of the conflict.  We haven't discussed the Ukraine situation, and the risk of nuclear conflict, in awhile, and reader Brendan Moran suggested another discussion might be illuminating.  So what do readers make of these developments?  Do they bring us closer to nuclear conflict?  Will they "help" end the conflict or prolong it?

30 "progressive" Democrats call on Biden to seek a "negotiated settlement" with Russia (UPDATED)

Here.  Without U.S. and European military support, the war in Ukraine is over, which means a "negotiated settlement" is also going to include pressure in Ukraine to make concessions it will not want to make, although the letter doesn't mention that.  Hopefully this letter will give some impetus to Biden to take steps to avoid killing us all.

UPDATE:  Philosopher Joel Pust points out to me on Twitter that they're already backtracking!  Disappointing.

Sleepwalking into Armageddon, Part 2

MOVING TO FRONT FROM OCTOBER 17, SINCE THE DISCUSSION IN THE COMMENTS CONTINUES--MORE COMMENTS WELCOME

Reader Boris Dagaev calls my attention to this chilling interview at the Financial Times with Alexander Gabuev, who "before he left Russia...was a member of the country’s foreign policy elite as one of Russia’s leading experts on China," and now works for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC (previously in Moscow).  An excerpt:

I think that if [Putin] believes that he’s losing this war and this war is existential for his understanding of his role in Russian history, we will see real-time preparations [for the use of nuclear weapons]. So he will try not to hide this. And it’s gonna be nuclear warhead-driven direction missile or whatever or artillery shells being unloaded. He will make it visible to give the west time to call him and start negotiation and avoid the nuclear escalation scenario, the way Cuban missile crisis was resolved....

"We are on a path to nuclear war"

Reader Howard Berman calls this brief essay to my attention.  An excerpt:

What began as a criminal Russian aggression against Ukraine has become a proxy war between Washington and Moscow. The two sides are locked in an escalatory cycle that, along current trends, will eventually bring them into direct conflict and then go nuclear, killing millions of people and destroying much of the world. This is obviously a bold prediction and certainly an unwise one to make — in part because if I’m right, I’m unlikely to be around take credit for it....