I watched a little last night, and a bit more today. Harris was, of course, lightyears better than Biden, and she did make some good points. But the monster child was not as bad as the gloating on social media would have led one to think (of course, the gloating is partisan, although even some Trump loytalists have admitted Trump lost). He, in fact, hammered Harris on some real vulnerabilities (e.g., she has no policies), and some of her responses were substantively pretty feeble. When she hammered him for his crazy tariff ideas, he replied, correctly, that Biden-Harris have left the China tariffs in place. She never responded to that point. I can only conclude that the gloating is a result of how despicable Trump is, and what a relief it is to have a moderately competent "debater" on the stage, rather than Mr. feeble-minded. (Putting his psychological health to one side, the monster child is clearly not as cognitively feeble as Biden: he is quick on his feet, and quick to lie on point.)
I gather as time went on, Trump became more unhinged, but the fact that Harris scored what seem to anyone sapient good points doesn't mean the election will be anything but obscenely close.
Regarding those polls, this NYT analysis is the most important piece I've seen. The polls in 2020 underestimated Trump's support (despite doing the same thing in 2016!), but the polls in 2022 underestimated support for the Democrats in the mid-term elections in many key 2024 states. In the latter case, abortion was the crucial factor; but for the reactionary Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade, the Democrats would have likely done much worse. So the big question for this year's polls is which direction the "undercounting" is going? Are polls again undercounting Trump supporters, or are they undercounting those single-issue voters (the issue being abortion)? If the latter, Harris wins, and wins easily. If the former, Trump wins. If both, then who knows? As it is, we simply don't know--which, given the stakes, is horrific.
Here's the key chart from the NYT:
| Polling Leader | If Polls miss like they did in … | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2020 | ||
| National | +2 Harris | +1 Harris | +2 Trump |
| Wisconsin | +2 Harris | +5 Harris | +7 Trump |
| Michigan | +2 Harris | +8 Harris | +3 Trump |
| Pennsylvania | +1 Harris | +6 Harris | +4 Trump |
| Nevada | Even | +3 Harris | +3 Trump |
| Georgia | Even | <1 Trump | +1 Trump |
| North Carolina | Even | +1 Harris | +4 Trump |
| Arizona | +1 Trump | +3 Harris | +3 Trump |
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