MOVING TO FRONT FROM FEBRUARY 12 OF THIS YEAR, UPDATED
It was obvious to me in 2016 that Hillary Clinton was an awful candidate--an opportunistic fake (like her philandering husband), whose only real qualification was her name and resulting institutional connections--and yet it seemed to me inconceivable that Trump could beat her, given how awful the monster-child was (and is). Duly chastened by that bitter experience, I confess I'm now getting deja vu that we're walking into another, probably worse disaster. Biden was always a congenial empty vessel, filled with whatever the Democratic consensus du jour was, but he hasn't suffered from decades of vaguely misogynistic demonization as Clinton did. His problem is different, one exacerbated by the special prosecutor's report about his walking off with classified materials, namely, his age. It won't do to point out that Trump is not only cognitively impaired, but psychologically disturbed, even though that is obviously true. Biden looks his age (he's 81), while Trump does not (he's 77); and Biden's verbal and cognitive mistakes do seem to be getting worse. With most of the electorate, appearances are everything. The polls probably are not lying about this problem eitehr. Sure Biden can run on the slogan, "Not a pathological narcissist and fascist like the other guy," but will enough voters notice or care?
Add to the mix third party candidates, and I fear we're sleepwalking into another disaster. Of course, if Trump is convicted of various crimes, that will help, but he may also get acquitted of some, which will give him a huge boost with the voters who pay no attention (which is most). Ross Douthat, of all people, actually has a good suggestion about how Biden should step aside, without guaranteeing that his unelectable VP is the nominee. I doubt it will happen, so we have to hope that a couple of courts convict Trump of crimes, with the result that the "independent" voters (i.e., those who can't tell the difference between day and night) flip to the Democrats.
UPDATE: I watched five minutes of last night's "debate": I saw Biden's stiff walk-on, in which he looked like death warmed over, heard him try to string together talking points, heard him completely fail to respond to Trump with precision or vigor, and turned it off. The entire NYT opinion staff today is calling for Biden to step aside after the pathetic and incompetent performance; Thomas Friedman, not exactl a bellwether of progressive opinion, put it best:
I had been ready to give Biden the benefit of the doubt up to now, because during the times I engaged with him one on one, I found him up to the job. He clearly is not any longer. His family and his staff had to have known that. They have been holed up at Camp David preparing for this momentous debate for days now. If that is the best performance they could summon from him, it’s time for him to keep the dignity he deserves and leave the stage at the end of this term.
If he insists on running and he loses to Trump, Biden and his family — and his staff and party members who enabled him — will not be able to show their faces.
Maybe the loss of elite support will lead Biden to do the right thing. Remember that in the end the election will not be decided on the basis of knowledge or information or policy judgments: it will be decided by clueless voters who are moved by appearances, a sense that "we need a change," that "this is new," etc. Democratic voters will vote for whomever the Democratic candidate is, the same for Republican voters; most "independents" really are Democratic or Republican voters. The 'genuine' independents are those whose vote is almost random, whose vote could be influenced by images like this from today's New York Post:
Will Biden do the right thing? I'm not optimistic, but more optimistic than yesterday after seeing this morning's collapse of elite support for the empty suit.
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