So the big news is there was no Republican wave (although the Repugs will probably take the House), and the polls (which in 2016 and 2020) underestimated support for Trump and sometimes Republicans more generally, this time overstated their support. The polls had the Pennsylvania Senate race basically tied, but in the end Fetterman, the social democrat in the mode of Bernie Sanders, looks to have beaten the absurd Dr. Oz by three percentage points. Even more striking is the Wisconsin Governor race, where the Democratic incumbent beat the Trump-annointed Republican by more than three points despite polls showing a dead heat or the Republican ahead. (This is important because the Repug legislature in Wisconsin has gerrymandered itself into permanent control.) Even the awful incumbent Senator in Wisconsin, Ron Johnson, beat his Democratic challenge by only 1 point, despite polls showing a much bigger lead.
The only Senate loss for the Democrats looks to be in Nevada, where the incumbent will probably lose to a Republican from a brand-name family in Nevada politics. (UPDATE: I jumped the gun on this one, the Democratic incumbent is now leading, but there's still more than one third of the vote to be reported.)
The Democrat in Pennsylvania handily won the gubernatorial contest against an insane, quasi-fascist religious zealot Repug. The Democrat in Arizona may yet prevail in the gubernatorial contest against another Repug maniac, although that race has not been called and the polls were showing the Repug with a notable lead. Democratic incumbents for Governor in New York and Michigan, and for Senate in New Hampshire, comfortably won reelection, despite, once again, polls showing the contests as getting "close" or "competitive."
What explains the better-than-expected performance by Democrats and the poor performance of the polls? I have only guesses. First, I think the abortion issue obviously remained salient for voters, and since most of the Repugs have deeply unpopular views on abortion, this helped the Dems. Second, general distrust of the media may have spilled over to Democratic voters who are also declining to respond to pollsters. Third, and I suspect this may be a big factor, all the lies about election fraud are actually suppressing the number of Republican voters. One may hope so!
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