Things are about to get much worse when it comes to Ukraine

MOVING TO FRONT FOR LAST TIME, ORIGINALLY POSTED SEPT 21--THERE CONTINUES TO BE TIMELY UPDATES AND INTERESTING LINKS AND COMMENTARY ON THE EVOLVING SITUATION 

Start with this:

Russia on Tuesday paved the way for the formal annexation of swathes of Ukrainian territory, backing referendum plans in areas of Ukraine its soldiers control in a direct challenge to the West that could sharply escalate the war....

In what appeared to be choreographed requests, Russian-backed officials across 15% of Ukrainian territory - an area about the size of Hungary or Portugal - lined up to request referendums on joining Russia.

The self-styled Donetsk (DPR) and the Luhansk People's Republics (LPR), which Putin recognised as independent just before the invasion, and Russian-installed officials in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions have asked for votes over less than 24 hours.

Luhansk, Donetsk and Kherson officials said the referendums would take place in just days - on Friday Sept. 23 through to Monday Sept. 27. Russia does not fully control any of the four regions, with only around 60% of Donetsk region in Russian hands.

If Moscow formally annexed a vast additional chunk of Ukraine, Putin would essentially be daring the United States and its European allies to risk a direct military confrontation with Russia, the world's biggest nuclear power.

"All this talk about immediate referendums is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West," said Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of the political analysis firm R.Politik.

And more from Stanovaya (see earlier)

Everything that is happening today (talk about an immediate referendums) is an absolutely unequivocal ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West. Either Ukraine is retreating, or a nuclear war. To guarantee a "victory", Putin is ready to hold referendums immediately in order to obtain the right (in his understanding) to use any weapons to protect the territory of Russia. As I have already written, Putin does not want to win this war on the battlefield. Putin wants to force Kyiv to surrender without a fight.

An important clarification is that the referendums will be arranged only as a reaction to the offensive, the probability of which Putin underestimated. A week ago, the Kremlin seriously believed that referendums would take place closer to the end of the year, if at all. In other words, it's not a plan, it's a failure of the plan.

And finally, yes, there will be mobilisation! If the West and Ukraine do not react "as it should". Preparing for a full-scale war. This is a serious reversal in Putin's logic regarding Ukraine.

An important clarification - I am by no means saying that the 'annexation' of Ukrainian territory will mean the beginning of a nuclear war. Instead, the 'annexation' will give Putin the legal pretext that he needs to threaten the use of nuclear weapons for the 'protection of Russian territory'. That is to say that the course of events might be as follows:

1) An immediate 'annexation';

2) An intensification of the fighting, which will be regarded by the Kremlin as an assault on Russia proper;

3) Mobilisation;

4) Threats to use nuclear weapons if Ukraine refuses to surrender.

(Thanks to Boris Dagaev for the pointers.)

This is a very alarming development, to put it mildly.