Tatiana Stanovaya is a Russian political scientist and analyst, based in France, who writes widely in English-language publications. Reader Boris Dagaev (who contributed several interesting comments to an earlier thread) calls my attention to Stanovaya's analysis shared on Telegram (which is popular in Russia, but not widely used elsewhere). This is a good counterweight to the narrative (popular in U.S. media) that Putin is a simly a "madman" in thrall to a crazy ideology:
Since there is much speculation about why and when exactly Putin decided to go to war, it is important to trace how we got to the point of no return.
There were six key stages:
1️⃣ The honeymoon. May – October 2019. This period took place in the first few months after Vladimir Zelensky’s election. The Kremlin had high hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough over the Donbass conflict because of Zelensky's background and his commitment to establishing peace at any cost. However, after a successful prisoner exchange in September, their high hopes rapidly evaporated. The Normandy summit in Paris in December 2019 was the final nail in the coffin of any viable “peace settlement”, as understood by Moscow.
2️⃣ Disappointment. November 2019 – Autumn 2020. Over the next year, in Moscow's eyes, Zelensky went from being their last hope to a hell-hound, worse even than Poroshenko (which they had previously thought impossible). Moscow realised two things, providing the rationale for the current war. Firstly, it became clear for Russia that a full-fledged dialogue with Zelensky or any other Ukrainian leader would be doomed to fail. Secondly, even the full implementation of the Minsk agreements, a fantasy scenario, wouldn’t stop Ukraine sliding into NATO - NATO was already inside Ukraine. By the end of 2020, the situation was judged critical. At this point, Putin began to seriously look for an urgent solution to the Ukrainian “problem”.
3️⃣ Military planning. Late 2020 – early 2021. Contrary to all rumours, leaks and analyses, practical discussions about how to take over Ukraine began in late 2020, continuing in the lead up to the April 2021 crisis (the first "build up" at the Ukrainian border). At this point, Putin was already working on implementation plans for a possible troop deployment. He might have ordered the assault much earlier, if it were not for Biden.
4️⃣ Postponement. April 2021 – November 2021. If Zelensky was Putin's last hope in Ukraine, Biden became his last hope in the West. Putin ordered a “pull back” from the Ukrainian border (not far) and decided to give the West one last chance to seriously consider Russia’s concerns. Putin had a strong desire to give the new US administration a try. But already in autumn, it was clear that the “spirit of Geneva” was fading.
5️⃣ Ultimatum. November 2021 – January 2022. In November, at the famous expanded Foreign Ministry board meeting, Putin demanded serious negotiations with the West about security guarantees. The hope placed in Biden was diminishing with each passing week. Putin made a clear decision then: to get a written response from the West to his demands - a negative response would mean the end of the diplomatic approach. There was little hope to begin with, but Putin wanted a written answer as a justification for the war.
6️⃣ War. Late January 2022 – present day. The end of January, when Russia received Washington's written response, can be counted as the beginning of the military operation. Precisely then, Putin began final preparations for the war and rejected all alternative paths. By this time, almost nothing could have influenced his decision.
The next stages are being written now. Putin will try to force Zelensky to accept Russia’s terms by laying siege to Ukraine's cities while refraining from storming them. Even if the original “blitzkrieg” failed, little has changed for Putin, who believes that a strategic goal has been achieved - Ukraine has ceased to exist in its previous form. However, signing peace agreements isn’t the most difficult part - that will come afterwards. To what extent will each side be ready to fulfill its commitments in a timely and complete manner? Is Russia ready to withdraw troops before Ukraine’s constitution has been changed? Can Zelensky even carry out constitutional amendments without meeting resistance from Ukrainian elites and society? All we can say for now is that time is working against Russia.
