An interesting perspective on the prospects for political violence in the U.S....

...from a scholar at Chicago (whom I do not know); an excerpt:

The real risk, small but terrible, is that democratic erosion we talked about earlier. The last few years have seen slippages small and large: a President who made dishonesty even more routine than usual; the politicization of the administrative state; the historically high levels of polarization between the two parties; the woeful level of public trust in government getting worse; the rise of populism; and the utter failure of government to effectively address all manner of policy challenges.

Also, you know who noticed the resilience of American institutions in 2020? Trump supporters. When Trump contested the 2020 election, the vast majority of Republican  election administrators—secretaries of state, county boards of elections, state judges, and so on—upheld Biden’s victory, no matter how pro-Trump they were personally. That’s why the most worrying activity at the moment is not white power marches or restive militias. It is the short-sighted but disciplined slice of the Republican party who are working to fill those offices with partisans who are more willing to trade democracy for short term political gain.

Together with another another demagogue running for President, and another contested election, and it’s easy to imagine something that would actually make the United States deserve a 6 or 7 on the Polity score.

In all likelihood, none of these events would prompt a civil war or lower-scale conflict. In a world where an election was overturned, there would be street protests and walkouts, apathy and anger. But no insurgency would arise. I doubt there would even be much sporadic violence. I say this for the same reasons that most groups never fight. No matter how unjust the situation, violence is just too awful to contemplate.

So, rather than spend time talking about a civil war, I want people focus on the undemocratic civil peace. We should not be complacent. I don’t know what the answer is. But I’ve seen two careful, well-argued pieces on what should be done. One is the article from Rachel Kleinfeld. She dwells on the tweaks that could reduce sporadic violence. The other is an excellent book by the presidential scholars Will Howell and Terry Moe. They propose more systematic changes to our institutions to reduce the incentives for populism. Highly recommended.