Again from Statnews:
Levels of Covid-19 in South Africa were subdued when the variant was first detected; since that time numbers have jumped. It’s possible that means Omicron has a growth advantage over Delta, but it’s also possible that it’s riding the new surge of cases, not driving it. Some scientists hypothesized that the rise in cases has been propelled by some superspreading events, explaining why a surge was first detected primarily in Gauteng province. Now, however, cases from the variant are increasing around the country, the WHO said, but some of the increase could be tied to which infections are being sequenced....
The WHO said Saturday that early evidence indicated the variant was causing reinfections at higher rates than other variants in South Africa, suggesting some ability to get around the immune response....
With new variants, vaccines can lose a step at blocking infections — particularly if the antibodies they elicit aren’t able to recognize the virus as well — but still largely maintain their ability to guard against severe disease and death because of the broader immune response, including T cells. This has happened already to varying degrees with other variants, to the greatest extent with the Beta variant and even to some extent with Delta. It’s also possible that if there’s a greater degree of immune escape, a higher percentage of breakthrough cases will lead to serious outcomes. That wouldn’t point to complete vaccine failure — but it would point to reduction in vaccine effectiveness.
Joe Phaahla, South Africa’s health minister, said Friday that breakthrough infections were occurring in the country, but the majority of hospital admissions remained among people who were not vaccinated, suggesting that vaccines were still maintaining some level of protection against Omicron. But, he acknowledged, “it’s still early days in terms of this particular variant."....
It's safe to assume that the Omicron variant is already widespread, including in America, although the U.S. does a poor job of tracking variants. Indeed, it seems plausible that the variant has been circulating for a couple of months "under the radar," until South Africa and Botswana called attention to it, and now countries are looking for it, and finding it. Will it go the way of the Beta and Gamma variants, or will it dominate Delta? Will it prove more transmissible than Delta, will it make people sicker? At the moment, we have no idea!
