How will the pandemic and economic crisis affect the landscape of higher education

Scott Galloway, a marketing professor at NYU (so he takes pleasure in markets and the destruction they wreak), has prepared a detailed analysis grouping colleges ranked by U.S. News into four categories:  Thrive, Survive, Struggle, Perish.  According to Professor Galloway (warning: some  "management-speak" coming),

This dataset compiles numbers from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) maintained by the US Department of Education, US News & World Report, Google Keyword Planner, Niche.com's Student Life Scores, and the Center on Education & the Workforce. This dataset should not be taken as peer-reviewed or final. It’s a working document that seeks to analyze and understand the US college and university landscape and to help universities craft solutions. 

We plotted each university across two axes (four quadrants):

• Value: (Credential * Experience * Education) / Tuition.
• Vulnerability: (Endowment / Student and % International Students). Low endowment and dependence on full-tuition international students make a university vulnerable to Covid shock, as they may decide to sit this semester/year out. Consumers generally don’t like to pay the rack rate at a hotel whose general manager harasses them and is a bigot. But I digress.

Quadrants:

• Thrive: The elite schools and those that offer strong value have an opportunity to emerge stronger as they consolidate the market, double down on exclusivity, and/or embrace big and small tech to increase the value via a decrease in cost per student.

• Survive: Schools that will see demand destruction and lower revenue, but will be fine, as they have the brand equity, credential-to-cost ratio, and/or endowments to weather the storm.

• Struggle: Tier-2 schools with one or more comorbidities, such as high admit rates (anemic waiting lists), high tuition, or scant endowments.

• Perish: Sodium pentathol cocktail of high admit rates, high tuition, low endowments, dependence on international students, and weak brand equity.

The University of Chicago, according to Galloway's analysis, will "survive," while Northwestern University will "thrive."  (Don't ask me!  Maybe because Northwestern has fewer international students?)  Barnard College will "survive," while Colgate University will "thrive."  But it's the list of schools that he forecasts will perish that is truly alarming.  It includes Oberlin College, Skidmore College, Macalester College, Pitzer College, Franklin & Marshall College, Hofstra University, Bard College, Kenyon College, Lawrence University, Lake Forest College, Yeshiva University, The New School, and Sarah Lawrence, among many others.  I suspect he's wrong about most of these, but if he were to turn out to be correct, the carnage and the transformation of the higher education landscape would be stunning.

UPDATE:  Biologist Greg Mayer points out to me that Prof. Galloway has renamed the "perish" category "challenged," although the description of it remains unchanged!