Here; an excerpt (but see the charts in the article for much more detail, including degrees of confidence):
The most recent survey, taken on March 16 and 17, found that, as a group, the experts think that as of March 15, only 12 percent of infections in the U.S. had been reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They think there’s a 73 percent chance of a second wave of hospitalizations this fall. And they expect approximately 200,000 deaths in the U.S. by the end of the year....
The expert consensus is to expect about 200,000 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19 this year, but the uncertainty around that number is also huge: There’s an 80 percent chance the final number will be between 19,000 and 1.2 million, according to these estimates.
According to the CDC, there were a bit more than 2,800,000 deaths in the U.S. in 2017. So coronavirus, on the average estimate, would increase deaths in the United States by about 7%, but might increase it by as much as 40%!
