A huge number of institutions of higher education in the U.S. (and elsewhere) are moving on-line for the remainder of this academic year. This is all to the good, and will no doubt help reduce spread of the virus. But it will also not cure the virus or insure a return to normalcy next fall. So what happens six months from now?
Here are the options I foresee given what we know now, which is of course very far from complete:
1. The new virus spreads so far and wide that there is effectively herd immunity that permits colleges to reopen normally in the fall.
2. A vaccine is developed much sooner than expected (i.e, during the summer) which permits colleges to reopen normally.
3. Anti-viral medications are discovered or developed that permit meaningful treatment of symptoms which means colleges can reopen since those who get sick can be effectively treated.
4. Colleges continue to operate on-line for much of next academic year. (If that happens, of course, that will solidify the future of online education for good.)
5. Colleges postpone starting dates into the Winter or Spring of 2020-21 (or further), awaiting effective treatments and vaccines (or herd immunity).
I would bet on #4 or #5. The problem with #5 of course is that colleges still must pay salaries.
Thoughts from readers welcome, along with links etc.
