It's still too soon to tell, but going on the data from the Johns Hopkins site as of March 5 (6:30 pm EST), and looking just at figures from countries that have had at least 100 cases, and are doing a better job of tracking cases than dysfunctional countries like the U.S. and Iran (or countries trying to conceal the problem, like Japan), here are some statistics.
|
Country |
Confirmed cases 3/5/20 |
Deaths |
Percentage of deaths/confirmed case |
|
South Korea |
6088 |
35 |
0.6% |
|
Italy |
3858 |
148 |
3.8% |
|
“Diamond Princess” cruise ship |
706 |
6 |
0.9% |
|
Germany |
482 |
0 |
0.0% |
|
France |
377 |
6 |
2.0% |
|
Singapore |
117 |
0 |
0.0% |
|
United Kingdom |
115 |
1 |
0.9% |
|
Hong Kong |
105 |
2 |
2.0% |
Germany has had a surge of cases recently, but Singapore and Hong Kong have had cases for longer. The outlier here is Italy, for reasons unknown (perhaps, like Wuhan initially, they were caught off-guard). A 1% fatality rate is being mentioned frequently now, and one can see why from these figures. 1% is pretty awful: ten times worse than seasonal flu. The burden falls disproportionately (but not only) on the elderly and those with (very common) chronic conditions, such as diabetes, cancer, heart disease, hypertension, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disorders (such as emphysema, but not asthma, as I understand it from a doctor). Opening comments for corrections, better-informed analysis or other relevant links. I'll open a separate thread tomorrow about changes people are taking to their travel plans.
