I've noted with appreciation some of philosopher Regina Rini's past public work, but her debut essay for a new "ethics" series at the TLS is neither a good piece of work nor a good advertisement for philosophy. The subject is the arrival of the novel coronavirus in Toronto, where Professor Rini teaches (at York University):
Toronto has a large Chinese Canadian community, particularly in the suburb of Markham. When I heard that someone had arrived with coronavirus from China, I admit that my first thought was to avoid restaurants in Markham for a bit. My second thought was that my first was dangerous, probably more dangerous than the disease itself.
"[M]ore dangerous than the disease itself"? You can read a vivid description of the condition of the sick for yourself: those with symptoms (we have no idea what percent of the infected develop symptoms) appear to suffer for two to three weeks before recovering, if they do. Ignoring that half of new infections are passed on by those who are not themselves symptomatic and that the virus appears to be spread just like regular influenza, Professor Rini assures us that,
Even in the unlikely chance you did catch coronavirus, the statistics suggest your risk of dying is quite small. As of February 4, with around 20,000 cases confirmed in China, 425 of those patients have died. Such a fatality rate is far less than that of Ebola or SARS.
This is an egregious mistake: all the experts agree that we have no idea what the fatality rate of this new virus is; here's but one example:
Usually, simple math would determine this “case fatality” ratio: divide the total number of deaths by the total number of people infected. In an emerging epidemic, however, both numbers keep changing, and sometimes at different speeds. This makes simple division impossible; you will invariably get it wrong.
For example: we don't know how many of those infected are asymptomatic, or simply not showing up in official data; we don't know how many are dying of the virus without ever coming to the attention of medical personnel; we don't know how many of the tens of thousands recently infected will die in the coming weeks; and so on. So this is "public philosophy" predicated on a falsehood.
But even if the mortality rate were 2% (as Professor Rini supposes), that would make it 20 times more fatal than seasonal flu. Why should anyone be nonchalant about an infection that has a 1 in 50 chance of killing you? If you want to convince the public that philosophers lack sense, this would be a good way to do it! Would people drive cars or fly in planes if those were the odds?
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