The latest state polls are simply amazing:
| Florida: Trump vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 44, Trump 39 |
Clinton +5 |
| Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 41, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 4 |
Clinton +5 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 48, Trump 39 |
Clinton +9 |
| North Carolina: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 45, Trump 36, Johnson 9, Stein 2 |
Clinton +9 |
| Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 46, Trump 33 |
Clinton +13 |
| Virginia: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 43, Trump 31, Johnson 12, Stein 5 |
Clinton +12 |
| Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 46, Trump 32 |
Clinton +14 |
| Colorado: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein |
NBC/WSJ/Marist |
Clinton 41, Trump 29, Johnson 15, Stein 6 |
Clinton +12 |
| Texas: Trump vs. Clinton |
KTVT-CBS 11 |
Trump 46, Clinton 35 |
Trump +11 |
Clinton leading Trump by huge margins in North Carolina and in Colorado? The margins in Florida and Virginia are also dramatic. Trump is in freefall, and we can be sure, given his psychological disturbance and stupidity, that he is the gift that will keep on giving. That's important because, as Achen and Bartels discuss in Democracy for Realists, events in the three months before an election have a hugely disproportionate impact on voter behavior.
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