From PEC and the NYT. Nate Silver, as we noted awhile ago, is not as reliable as he was in 2012. My theory is that, having ditched the New York Times, and ventured out on his own, he is now much more dependent on generating traffic and attention, which gives him an incentive to be an outlier in his results and to take risks the more sober Nate Silver of 2012 wouldn't have.
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