So Sanders beat Clinton in New Hampshire, as expected, but he beat her by an unexpectedly large margin, garnering 60% of the vote, while she got less than 40%. Those margins bode ill for Clinton, happily, even though she remains likely to win South Carolina. South Carolina and Nevada will be crucial to Sanders's viability going forward. No doubt the latest Sanders victory will bring forth another round of brainless punditry from Krugman and others hoping for a Clinton Administration job.
On the Republican side, Trump out-performed the polls only slightly, garnering 35% of the vote. Oddly, this is being described as some great victory, even though the fact remains that despite name recognition and front-runner status for six months now, two-thirds of Republican voters, even in a state like New Hampshire (without a large conservative Christian vote), still want someone else. This is consistent with what we know about the extremely high "negatives" Trump has for most voters. The "moderate" conservative John Kasich, the Ohio Governor, did capture second place, as I surmised he might, with nearly 16% of the vote; the unknown is whether that will give him any momentum and increased recognition going forward. South Carolina, which is next up, is another primary (as distinct from caucus) state, and independents can vote in South Carolina, which helps Trump, but could also help Kasich. On the other hand, there is a large group of evangelical Christian voters, which will favor Cruz. While we have Governor Christie of New Jersey to thank for effectively destroying Senator Rubio (who came in 5th in New Hampshire, with about 10% of the vote)--and Christie himself will surely drop out of the race shortly--the bad news for Kasich is that "low energy" Bush got 11% of the vote in New Hampshire, effectively tying Cruz (though Cruz did come in slightly ahead of Bush, even in New Hampshire!). Bush has enormous resources, so I expect he will compete vigorously in South Carolina and Nevada, but he and Kasich are going to compete for the same set of voters--as will Rubio, assuming he remains afloat. I expect Trump will win South Carolina, and Cruz will finish a strong second. If Kasich does not come in third or better in South Carolina or Nevada, he may soon be a goner too, and Bush may be the last venal conservative who isn't an insane bomb-thrower standing! On the other hand, if Kasich can outperform Bush in South Carolina and Nevada, then he may earn that title. The huge March 1 primaries include many Southern states--where Trump and Cruz are favored as of now--but also many states (Vermont, Minnesota, Massachussetts, Colorado)--where Kasich could do well, if he's still in the race.
Finally, a nicely written piece on why Trump is "scary." But he isn't that scary, because he guarantees a Democratic victory, and even if the Clintons are venal, they're not as scary!
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