Clinton beat Sanders by a solid margin in Nevada (about 5%), which means he's done. She will beat him in South Carolina by a larger margin next week. To be sure, I expect Sanders to hang on through the big primaries on March 1, but I think it's clear Clinton will be the nominee of the Democrats. Sanders has nonetheless accomplished something very important--millions of people in the United States have been exposed to and not quite as many have now embraced (what they think is) democratic socialism--and the prudent wing of the ruling class now knows they have to be careful going forward into the general election. Even their designated representative of prudent greed must be sure to cover her tracks as a representative of the ruling class. The generational implications of Sanders's unexpected success to date are clear.
Meanwhile in the asylum: it now seems clear that Rubio will be the nominee of the Repugs, unless he has another "Christie moment" The relevant fact is not that Trump won in South Carolina's primary--one which allowed independents to vote--it's that he failed to outperform the polls and failed, still, to capture more than a third of the Republican primary voters. Even though South Carolian is full of right-wing evangelical Christian voters, Rubio kept pace with, and maybe even beat, Cruz. The pressure on Bush and Kasich to drop out will be substantial now, so that the imprudent wing of the ruling class can coalesce behind a well-behaved water boy like Rubio.
So within a few weeks, it will be clear that the fall contest for leadership of the most dangerous nation on earth will be between Clinton and Rubio. Clinton will choose an Hispanic running mate, and the Republicans will go down to massive defeat this fall. (Most Hispanic voters are not well-disposed to Cuban-Americans like Rubio, but to be safe Clinton will choose a Mexicaon-American running mate, which will insure her victory.) This will be good, all things considered, for vulnerable people in the U.S., and a matter of indifference to vulnerable people elsewhere.
FEB. 21 UPDATE: So Bush has officially dropped out of the race, and Rubio did beat Cruz by .2%--but to have done so in South Carolina, where two-thirds of the primary voters are evangelical Christians, is remarkable and bodes ill for Cruz. Of course, if Cruz drags this out, then Trump could continue to prevail just with his one-third of the vote. The Nevada caucus will be revealing--Rubio has campaigned hard there, and we know from Iowa, that caucuses do not favor Trump's, whose ground organization is thin and whose whim voters are less likely to caucus. If Rubio can win Nevada, that should shift the momentum on the Republican side his way--not that I'm hoping for that! It would be wonderful if Trump were the Republican nominee, as it would guarantee that women, Latinos, African-Americans, Asian-Americans and young people vote by landslide proportions for the Democrats.
ANOTHER: Robert Paul Wolff thinks that the winner-take-all nature of most (all?) of the Republican primaries gives Trump a clear path to the nomination.
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