It's nice to see the whole world making fun of the not-so-crypto fascist wannabe Donald Trump, but this recent poll out of Iowa is important, since it shows Senator Ted Cruz, a pure right-wing religious crazy out of Texas, leading the pack, including leading Trump by 5%. The Iowa Republican caucus is dominated by religious conservatives--in past cycles they have anointed Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee, both of whom, however, went down in flames not long thereafter. Ted Cruz is the natural for them, given those precedents (and given that Ben Carson is becoming increasingly pathetic in public). So prediction: Cruz wins Iowa, Trump wins New Hampshire, and the field begins to narrow (say farewell to Carson, Fiorina, Kasich, Paul etc.), with Rubio hanging on, maybe Christie, maybe even Bush. We then head to South Carolina, where the conservative Christian vote also looms large, and Cruz is likely to do well again (but it's an "open" primary so so-called "independents" could turn out for Trump). I've no prediction on Nevada, but come March 1, we have a huge number of contests. Cruz, Rubio, Bush (if he's still standing), and Trump have the resources to compete if they want. But if Rubio hasn't won anything by March 1, he may be finished. So, too, Christie. The Republican Establishment hates Cruz almost as much as Trump, I suspect, but if forced to choose, I'm fairly confident who'd they prefer. If Cruz is the nominee, this would be yet another windfall for the Democrats.
UPDATE: This should help Senator Cruz lock up Iowa! (Thanks to Richard Galvin for the pointer.)
MEANWHILE: Two-thirds of likely Republican voters support Trump's proposal to ban Muslims--so does one-third of all voters (I guess that includes the Republican ones). This tells us what's in store if there are more incidents like San Bernadino. Those organizations defending civil rights had better be gearing up their legal strategies, because if mass hysteria sets in, the courts may be the only hope.
DECEMBER 10 UPDATE: The latest New York Times/CBS poll for the Republican nomination shows Trump first with 35% and Cruz now moving ahead to second with 16%. That leaves 49% of likely Republican voters picking others or undecided: 13% for Carson, 9% for Rubio, 4% for Rand Paul, 3% each for Bush, Christie, Kasich, and Huckabee. Cruz will get most or all of the Carson and Huckabee support (kicking him up to 32%), and should be easily competitive with Trump for much of the rest, esp. since Cruz looks fairly sane by comparison. I expect that Cruz will win both Iowa and South Carolina, which will give him the needed momentum going forward, plus he also has the financial resources to compete. Even the problematic Hillary Clinton will crush him in the general election, so says my crystal ball.
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