...this poll out of Iowa among likely Democratic and Republican voters is very revealing. A few takeaways: (1) Sanders is closing in on Clinton even in Iowa, and Clinton's lead has been collapsing all summer; (2) the real story on the Republican side is not Trump anymore, but the rise of Ben Carson (who is now the clear #2 favorite in Iowa), an utterly lunatic religious fanatic and the sole African-American on the Republican side--and note that Carson has very low "unfavorable" ratings among Republicans compared to Trump (indeed, compared to all the others); (3) the other big story on the Republican side is the collapse of Jeb Bush's candidacy (he's trailing not only Trump and Carson, but several others, and his "unfavorable" among Republican voters in Iowa are very high)--is this due to bad memories of the last Bush or to Trump's withering mockery of Jeb? Who knows? In any case, it's good news, as Jeb is probably the most likely Republican (other than Ohio's Kasich and Fiorina) to give Democrats a run for the money in the national campaign (the national election, remember, is decided by turnout among loyalists, on the one hand, and by the so-called "independent" voters, on the other, i.e., the folks who can't tell night from day, and who gravitate precisely towards the candidate who generates less loyalist response on each side).
The fact that either Trump or Carson may come out on top in Iowa is wonderful news for the Democrats, even for the sorry Clinton candidacy, since both are guaranteed to go down in flames in the national election. The Democratic establishment desperately wants to block a Sanders candidacy, though he's on track at this point to win New Hampshire and maybe to win Iowa too. But Sanders will have a harder time once the primaries move to states with large number of African-American voters, a constituency where the Clinton brand is still generally popular. Sanders would do well to make an early announcement of his VP selection, and to make it an African-American or Hispanic female!
And that's the end of my political prognostications for awhile!
AUG 31 UPDATE: Carson has now tied Trump in the latest Iowa poll. Cruz, Fiorina have some traction, and Bush is MIA. Bear in mind that the Republican caucus in Iowa is dominated by religious fanatics--hence the past winners were Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum.
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