This is mostly for the benefit of foreign readers, though perhaps some others will find it of interest.
Yesterday, was "Super Tuesday" in the U.S., with more than twenty Presidential primaries throughout the country.
Senator John McCain from Arizona emerged the clear front-runner to win the Republican nomination. Senator McCain is not popular with "conservatives" (I'm not sure this is the right term for these people) who object to several of his positions: for example, his opposition to torture; his opposition to the Bush tax cuts; his lack of support for all the far right judicial nominees Bush put forward; his insufficient enthusiasm for punitive measures against illegal immigrants; and his support for campaign finance reform. Senator McCain is, of course, also a leading war-monger, who likes to joke about bombing Iran. This combination of positions makes him "too liberal" for a section of the American electorate.
Senator Clinton won in California, her home state of New York, the neighboring state of New Jersey, her former home state of Arkansas, Massachussetts, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arizona.
Senator Obama won in his home state of Illinois, Georgia, the frequent bellwether state of Missouri, Alabama, Connectict (which borders New York), Delaware, Utah, North Dakota, Colorado, Kansas, Idaho, and Alaska. States like Utah, North Dakota, Idaho, and Alaska have almost no African-American population, and are largely non-Hispanic white. In Utah, Obama beat Clinton 57% to 39%; in Idaho, 79% to 17%; in Alaska, 75% to 25%; and in North Dakota, 61% to 37%.
The margins of victory are telling elsewhere. In her home state of New York, Clinton beat Obama by 17 percentage points; in his home state of Illinois, Obama beat Clinton by 32 percentage points. Obama beat Clinton by a small margin in neighboring Connecticut (that he won at all is very telling), and by ten percentage points in Delaware, part of the Northeast corridor, which one might have thought safe territory for the New York Senator.
If one remembers that Senator Clinton started with a huge name recognition advantage, and was the presumptive nominee before the process started, it is clear how much trouble she is now in. She may yet pull it out. The decent thing to do, of course, would be to withdraw from the race. As one right-wing pundit wrote not long ago, "Only one thing can now unite the Republican Party: Hillary Clinton."
UPDATE: Ruchira Paul reflects on why older non-white women might be supporting Obama and not Clinton.
ANOTHER: A reader was puzzled why I thought the "decent" thing for Senator Clinton to do was withdraw, so I guess I should be explicit. I'd like her to withdraw for two reasons: (1) there's
no reason to think she's any more progressive than her husband Bill (whose domestic
policies were to the right of Richard Nixon's), and she has too much
blood on her hands with Iraq and her war-mongering about Iran, and (2)
she's the Democrat least likely to win in November, esp. against McCain.
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