Hollow Force? (Edmundson)

Shortfalls in U.S. armed forces recruiting have been widely publicized; but the Pentagon has recently pointed to improving re-enlistment numbers. A puzzle: fewer want to join, but fewer want to leave.  Today, the Los Angeles Times (Jan. 30) reports--in "Army's Rising Promotion Rate Called Ominous"-- that Rumsfeld has resorted to what amounts to "social promotion" within the officer ranks.  In just the past  year, historical average promotion rates have been bumped from 70-80% to 97% for captains (to major) and from 65-75% to 86% for majors (to lieutenant colonel).  According to the LA Times's high-ranking Pentagon source, "Basically, if you haven't been court-martialed, you're going to be promoted [from captain] to major."  Not a trivial incentive to re-enlist if you're among the bottom 20% that traditionally would dead-end at captain.  One might assume that Rumsfeld's motive was simply to disguise the crisis in officer retention; but, the LA Times reports that "Army officials say the primary cause of the jump in promotions is the service's ongoing effort to create more combat units without an overall expansion."   More units--better retention--but without more troops--an "ongoing effort."  ("Helluva job, Rummy!")  Are units like these intended to back up the tough talk in Washington about Iran?