John Oberdiek (Law, Rutgers-Camden) calls my attention to a new Bureau of Labor Statistics study suggesting a sharp upturn in the number of academic jobs over the next decade. A journalistic version of the main conclusions is here.
Of course, some will recall that Bill Bowen, former Princeton President, published a study more than a decade ago making a similar forecast for the 1990s, and that booming higher education job market did not materialize. There are similar caveats attached to this latest forecast.
The main conclusion, which is on page 19 of the BLS report, is that there will be a 38% increase in the number of "postsecondary teachers" between 2002 and 2012. The BLS describes this as "much faster than average growth," but notes that "new opportunities for postsecondary teachers" will be "particularly at community colleges and for-profit institutions that cater to working adults." The BLS adds: "A rising young-adult population also will spur growth. Many new jobs are likely to be part time."
As the CNN report summarizes it:
"Even though the job market has been fairly dismal in recent years for tenure-seeking Ph.D.s in many fields of academia, BLS projected increased demand for post-secondary teachers for several reasons.
"First, it's likely a large number of tenured professors who started teaching in the 1960s -- when there was a large expansion of the education sector -- will be retiring over the next several years, said BLS economist Jon Sargent.
"There's also been growth in the number of community and junior colleges, as well as in technical educational institutions, he said.
"Whether schools will seek to hire as many tenured professors or will opt instead to bulk up on lower-paid adjunct professors, as some institutions have done, remains to be seen. If schools reduce the number of tenure track positions, it's possible the median earnings for the occupation could fall."
So it's a mixed picture when looked at more closely.
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