I don't read Andrew Sullivan ordinarily; he is, for those who don't know, a conservative gay Catholic, a trio of identities that often ties him up in strange knots. But he's right about this:
What [Trump] is doing is not about making a tough peace deal with Russia, recalibrating NATO, or protecting Ukraine’s democracy. He is merely setting the terms of a new alliance and relationship with the criminal Russian dictatorship — directed against the European democracies....
[W]hat other conclusion can one draw when the president cuts the Ukrainians and their European allies out of the dealmaking, has already conceded Ukraine’s conquered territory before any talks, insists that Ukraine started the war, that Zelensky, and not Putin, is the dictator, and is demanding reparations in advance ... from Ukraine, not Russia! The reparations amount to a US claim on 50 percent of Ukraine's mineral deposits forever. It’s the equivalent of “We’re gonna take Iraq’s oil.” It’s a form of imperial pillage. But it’s vintage Trump....
As for concessions from Russia for its unprovoked violation of an internationally recognized border? None that I can see, apart from stopping the war....Then the Russians get American sanctions lifted, re-entry to the G-7, vast new oil revenues, and a chance to take all of Ukraine next time....
In fact, Vance’s speech [in Munich] and Trump’s remarks make it clear that the US is no longer in alliance with Europe at all, but with Russia against Europe, and Europe’s liberal elites. The goal now is to replace those elites with Moscow-friendly governments, bent on repatriation of illegal migrants. Hence the stunning endorsement of the AfD by Elon Musk — the second most powerful man in the Trump administration.
After what the president and vice president have said this week, it’s fair to say, I think, that NATO is effectively over. No one can even faintly believe that the US under Trump would abide by Article 5 to defend another member state. Trump has just told the Baltic states: you’re on your own now. If you resist Russian control, you’ll deserve what you get.
Can Europe defend itself against Russia without the US? The UK and France have nuclear arsenals, and the EU armies total nearly 1.5 million personnel, so the answer is almost certainly "yes." Russia's conventional "military might" proved to be a paper tiger in Ukraine, so much so that North Korean troops have been called in to help. This is not a military that is going to steamroll Europe, although it may well steamroll the Baltic States.
Although the Trump Administration has a number of China hawks, and Trump himself appears to have considerable animus towards China, I would think the Chinese government views these developments as strengthening its hand against Taiwan. The post-WWII "peace"* secured by the U.S. nuclear umbrella is over.
*Obviously there was no peace when US or Soviet/Russian imperial interests were at stake, but in Europe and much of Asia there was.
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